After the successful application in the field of two-wheeled vehicles and 3C, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) has gradually achieved a breakthrough from "0 to 1". According to statistics, in 2022, the shipment of lithium manganese iron phosphate will exceed 2,000 tons, mainly concentrated in the field of electric two-wheelers.

Recently, a number of companies in the industrial chain disclosed that in the second half of the year, the company's lithium manganese iron phosphate will accelerate its verification and commissioning in the power battery and energy storage markets, and large-scale commercialization is just around the corner.

Rongbai Technology said in a recent investor survey that there are more than 80 customers (including the second round and the fourth round) of lithium manganese iron phosphate materials, and the shipments in the first half of the year are mainly in the second round. Customer's factory audit. At present, the summer test has been completed in terms of the loading progress of the four wheels, and the winter test will enter in the third quarter. It is expected that large-scale loading will be realized by the end of the year. The company will be the fastest and earliest lithium manganese phosphate enterprise on the market. .

According to German Nano, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) is expected to be applied in batches to the models of downstream new energy vehicle manufacturers in 2023, and the company's new phosphate-based cathode materials will receive large orders from customers by then.

Many practitioners judge that the much-anticipated lithium manganese iron phosphate battery (LMFP Battery) is about to start a large-scale "boarding" journey within this year. In 2023, the shipment of lithium iron manganese phosphate cathode materials will achieve rapid growth, and relevant industry chain companies will be the first to benefit.

01 Multiple players join the game

Under the urgent need of cost reduction and performance upgrade, when the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is close to the "ceiling", the market is turning its attention to the upgraded version of lithium iron phosphate - lithium manganese iron phosphate.

Since 2022, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) with higher energy density and higher safety performance has attracted upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain to continuously enter the market.

At present, including traditional lithium iron phosphate, ternary cathode material companies, third-party lithium iron manganese phosphate companies, manganese material factories, battery factories, and car companies have all been involved, and the number of new capacity planning projects in 2023 will increase sharply.

On June 29, news broke out that Tesla’s domestically-made Model 3 facelift will continue to upgrade the battery pack, especially the power of the basic rear-wheel drive version will be upgraded from 60kWh to 66kWh, using CATL M3P battery .

Combined with CATL’s previous disclosure, M3P batteries have already started mass production and will be introduced to the market in 2023. The message has some credibility. The CATL called it "the ternary of the phosphate system". Some analysts pointed out that the M3P battery is based on the original battery chemical system, adding some manganese and other metal elements, which is a further optimized manganese phosphate. Lithium iron battery.

Obviously, if Tesla takes the lead in realizing the installation and matching, it will drive other OEMs to follow up quickly, and the increase in lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries is coming soon.

Including the CATL, mainstream power battery factories have basically laid out the lithium manganese iron phosphate route, and customer verification is on the way.

In March, Sunwoda said in response to investors' questions that the energy density of the company's lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries can reach 235Wh/kg; in May, Guoxuan Hi-Tech released its self-developed L600 Qichen batteries and battery packs, Adopting the lithium manganese iron phosphate technology route, the energy density reaches 240Wh/kg, and the cruising range can reach 1000 kilometers. It is planned to be mass-produced in 2024; in June, Zhongxinhang released the OS high-manganese iron lithium battery with an energy density of 180Wh/kg. , with a battery life of up to 700 kilometers.

In addition, Phylion, REPT, Farasis, BYD, and EVE have all stated that they are developing and deploying lithium manganese phosphate products.

In addition to mainstream battery companies scrambling to deploy lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries, related companies in the upstream and midstream of the industry chain have also increased their "manganese material" track. In particular, the production capacity planning of leading cathode materials has begun to see scale, covering Defang Nano, Hunan Yuneng, Wanrun New Energy, Dangsheng Technology, Rongtong High-Tech, etc.

According to the incomplete statistics, the investment in lithium manganese iron phosphate was intensive in the first half of the year, and more than 20 projects have been implemented in China, and the production capacity of a single project has reached 200,000 tons. The annual planned production capacity has reached 1 million tons.

For example, in June, Tiannai Jincheng’s 100,000-ton lithium manganese iron phosphate cathode material project and Qianyun Hi-Tech’s annual production of 200,000 tons lithium manganese iron phosphate cathode material project started successively.

Defang Nanometer said that the company has made a forward-looking layout in the anode materials of lithium manganese iron phosphate batteries, and the industrialization process is relatively advanced. At present, it has built a production capacity of 110,000 tons of lithium iron manganese phosphate per year, and has batch supply capabilities. The large-scale nodes are expected to be in third quater.

Dangsheng Technology currently has an actual available production capacity of 4,000 tons per year, and a planned production capacity of 300,000 tons. Dangsheng Technology's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium iron manganese phosphate (LMFP) are the same production line and can be converted to each other; Rongbai Technology's current actual available production capacity is 6,200 tons tons/year, and the planned production capacity of lithium manganese iron phosphate will reach 300,000 tons in 2025.

We believe that when the large-scale loading of lithium manganese iron phosphate is approaching, battery, cathode and manganese mining companies are expected to benefit. The battery and cathode companies that take the lead in deploying lithium manganese iron phosphate can gain a first-mover advantage, obtain a certain premium on the product side, and are expected to obtain excess profits.

02 Lithium manganese iron phosphate speeds up from "1 to N" application

From the application point of view, at present, in the fields of two-wheeled vehicles and small energy storage, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) has certain advantages, and has begun industrial application.

Taking Phylion as an example, in addition to already shipping two-wheelers, in 2023, Phylion joined hands with digital brand giant Newman to jointly develop a new portable mobile energy storage product using high-performance lithium manganese iron phosphate material.

From the perspective of application demand, small power and small energy storage are the basic disks that constitute lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) in the early stage, and medium and long-term new energy vehicles are still the key to speeding up the application of lithium manganese iron phosphate from "1 to N".

Starting point research statistics show that by 2025, the global automotive power lithium battery market is expected to be close to 1.7TWh. In the electric vehicle market, on the one hand, lithium manganese iron phosphate can partially replace lithium iron phosphate, and on the other hand, it can be mixed with ternary materials to reduce costs and improve safety.

Specifically, lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) may be aimed at the ternary 5 series and 6 series, looking for alternative space in the new energy vehicle market between 500 and 700 kilometers.

Wu Kai, chief scientist of CATL, once said that in the mainstream new energy vehicle market with a battery life of 700 kilometers, CATL's solution is the M3P battery + Kirin battery, CATL battery structure, and the combination of these two technologies is used.

At present, due to technical difficulties, it is difficult for lithium manganese iron phosphate to realize its energy density potential. Therefore, most companies this year mainly use it with ternary cathodes.

For example, the "M6P" product of Rongbai Technology is a blended product of high-nickel ternary and lithium manganese iron phosphate. In order to provide customers with multiple solutions, high-nickel and lithium manganese iron phosphate can be mixed in different proportions , mainly used in power batteries. The biggest advantage is that it is cost-effective (the cost per watt-hour is more than 15% lower than that of China Nickel Ternary), and it has better safety.

With the gradual application of electric vehicles in batches at the end of the year, the cost of lithium manganese iron phosphate is expected to drop rapidly, coupled with the decline in the price of lithium carbonate itself, will further improve the comprehensive cost performance of lithium manganese iron phosphate.

Industry insiders predict that after 2024, the cost-effective route of positive electrode materials will be mainly lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) and lithium iron phosphate , supplemented by sodium batteries; the high energy density route of positive electrode materials will be mainly 8 series and 9 series ternary. The demand for M3P materials this year is about 20,000 tons, and it is expected to reach 100,000 tons in 2024. By 2030, the market share of lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) may reach 30%.